The Why #95: Why does it seem like crime rates are always on the rise?
Question submitted by Tori, Caroline Springs
Ratbag kids. Corporate criminals. Incessant jaywalkers. Everywhere we look our once civilised (demure?) society seems to be coming apart at the seams.
While it’s tricky to know what’s actually happening (do increases in reported crime rates mean more crime is happening or just more crime is being reported?), it certainly feels like every day we don’t have our cars, wallets or digital identities stolen is a good day. .
So what gives?
Availability Bias
Availability Bias refers to our tendency to prioritise information that comes to mind quickly and easily when making decisions. Memories that are recent, vivid, emotionally or personally significant are recalled more easily, and if something is easy to recall, we’re more likely to believe that it’s true or likely to happen.
In 1983, Nobel prize winning researcher Danny Kahneman and his partner Amos Tversky put this to the test. In a study, one group of university students were asked to guess the chances that a huge flood would happen somewhere in North America. Another group of students were asked to guess the chances of a flood happening in the state of California, specifically due to an earthquake.
Spoiler alert. California is inside North America, which means the likelihood of a flood happening there must be smaller than the likelihood of a flood happening anywhere in North America (including California).
Alas, the students believed that the chances of a flood were considerably higher in California.
Why? A few reasons. Whilst floods aren’t common in Cali, earthquakes are. Often a staple in the local California news cycle, the idea that ‘earthquake = California’ and ‘earthquake = flood’ felt familiar and remained top of mind for the participants. Plus, California is undoubtedly a far more vivid mental image than simply ‘somewhere in North America’.
Recent and vivid, the perfect recipe for Availability Bias.
Availability bias is a major factor in why we feel like crime rates are forever on the rise. Although we’re more likely to get stuck in an elevator, find a four leafed clover or lose our luggage when travelling, it still feels like that triple zero call is only ever a moment away. All of which is not that surprising, given the evolutionary benefits of being hard wired to notice and remember scary, dangerous things while all but ignoring the millions of lovely, not scary things that happen every single day.
For Challenger Brands, the story here isn’t about winning or losing — it’s about being easy to recall (ie mentally available). Showing up regularly and consistently is half the equation. From here, add distinctive brand codes and memorable, emotion eliciting cues, then sit back and watch your brand blow up like a ponzi scheme (in the best possible way).
Behaviourally Yours,
PS If you missed the last edition, you can still check out why it’s a struggle to spring clean our wardrobes here.
Forwarded this? Subscribe to join thousands of others who receive The Why fortnightly.
Bad Decisions Podcast
To learn more about Behavioural Science, tune into the Bad Decisions podcast.
Got a question?
Is there something you’ve always wondered about?
Send it through to AskDan@hardhat.com.au
Want more?
Check out the latest piece in Dan’s fortnightly content series with Mumbrella, exploring why instead of targeting the same old (young) audiences, Challenger Brands should go loud and proud after the forgotten segments market leaders consciously or subconsciously neglect.
The Why, The Book
If you’re a fan of having your curly questions answers, secure your copy of the newly released Amazon #1 Best Seller ‘The Why, The Book’ by Dan Monheit here.
